EU population getting dangerously old
ELITSA VUCHEVA
26.08.2008 @ 17:37 CET
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The EU's population is to gradually get older in the next 50 years, with those aged 65 or older likely to make up for almost a third of the bloc's population by 2060, a new survey has shown.
The ageing trend will be most significant in Poland, where 36.2 percent of people will be 65 or more by that time, but also in Slovakia and Poland (36.1 and 35 percent, respectively).
Almost a third of the EU's population will be aged 65 years or older by 2060 (Photo: EUobserver.com)
However, all EU states will be affected to an extent, with the average number of seniors jumping from 17 percent currently to 30 percent in 2060, according to a Eurostat survey published on Tuesday (26 August).
"There would be only two people of working age for every person aged 65 or more in 2060, compared with four persons to one today," the survey says.
The European Commission has expressed concern about the figures and their possible impact on the economy.
"We are concerned with finding out whether our member states will be able to pay for the costs linked to ageing, and whether future generations will not be overburdened," said commission spokesperson Amelia Torres.
Beyond just ageing, the bloc's population will be decreasing as well.
By 2015, the number of deaths will exceed the number of births in the EU, with immigration becoming the only factor boosting the bloc's population, the survey says.
After an initial increase from 495 million currently to 521 million in 2035, the total population in the EU's 27 member states will again drop to 506 million in 2060.
The population of Bulgaria is to shrink the most (28%), followed by Baltic countries Latvia (26%) and Lithuania (24%), as well as Romania (21%) and Poland (18%).
On the other hand, Cyprus is to note the most considerable rise (66%), followed by Ireland (53%), Luxembourg (52%), the UK (25%) and Sweden (18%).
Germany – currently the EU most populous state, with over 80 million inhabitants, is to shrink to 71 million, and be overtaken by the UK and France, with 77 and 72 million people respectively.
Italy (59 million) and Spain (52 million) are set to stay in the top 5.
Eurostat, the Luxembourg-based EU statistics office, has warned that the figures should be taken with caution however, as they are "what-if scenarios" that are "one of several possible population change scenarios based on assumption for fertility, mortality and migration."